FRIDAY WEATHER: Our sizzling September continues, but the end may be in sight! Today we’ll top out around 91 degrees with a very slight chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours. Tonight we’ll drop to the upper 60s. The next two days will be almost carbon copies of today: Temperatures near 90 degrees with a slight chance of an isolated shower or storm.
NEXT WEEK: We’ll likely hit 90 degrees again Monday, but then it looks like the heat is going to begin to break. In fact, we may not get out of the 70s by Wednesday! There’s a better chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday, then rain becomes likely Tuesday. Lesser chances of rain will continue Wednesday and Thursday. Daytime highs will drop to the upper 70s or around 80 degrees, with nighttime lows falling to near 60 degrees. It’ll still be a little warm for this time of year, but should feel amazing after the torturous weather we’ve experienced for much of the month.
FURTHER OUT: We will hopefully have seen an end to our 90-degree temps for the year once we get to Tuesday, but above-average temperatures are expected to remain in charge through the month of September and into October. While we may have seen an end to the 90s (time will tell), we’ll almost certainly see more temps in the 80s. Hopefully we’ll see a slight uptick in rain possibilities, as well, but we are in the dry season now so any rain we see is basically a bonus.
RIVER CONDITIONS: There are a few more days to get in a summer swim before the heat breaks. Water temperatures continue to surge into the low to mid 80s during the peak of afternoon heating, which is pretty unusual for this time of year. Water clarity is excellent. Streamflows range from about 70 cubic feet per second (cfs) at Leatherwood Ford to about 10 cfs at Burnt Mill Ford.
TROPICAL WATCH: There remains a very slight chance that a disturbance drifting west from Bermuda towards Florida could organize into a tropical storm, but it’s unlikely. Otherwise, tropical storms are not expected for at least the next seven days, as a very quiet hurricane season continues.
WINTER OUTLOOK: Little has changed with regards to the outlook for the 2026-2027 winter season. As a rule, strong El Ninos bring milder-than-normal temperatures (with fewer extreme shots of cold arctic air) and wetter-than-normal conditions to our area, and this El Nino may wind up being the strongest on record. But smaller-scale atmospheric conditions that are impossible to determine this far in advance will dictate exactly what happens with our weather, and while El Nino winter are notoriously mild, some of our biggest winter storms have occurred during strong El Nino years. The current best bet is for a warmer-than-normal November and December, with temperatures settling back closer to normal in January and February.
