LABOR DAY WEATHER: After our hottest-ever start to September, temperatures should be slightly more comfortable for the holiday, as we’re expecting to top out around 86 degrees with mostly sunny skies today. We were in the 90s for six consecutive days to start the month, but today will likely break that streak. Tonight we’ll drop to around 64 degrees with partly cloudy skies.
THE REST OF THE WEEK: We may not get back to 90 degrees this week, but it’ll continue to be hot and dry. We’ll generally see temperatures in the upper 80s each day, before rain becomes likely Thursday and Thursday night. Unfortunately, we’re not expecting much rain as a cold front swings through. But with any luck, we’ll at least see enough rain to settle the dust.
THE WEEKEND: We’ll see slight rain chances and hot temperatures continue through the weekend. There’ll be about a 30% to 40% chance of thunderstorms each day, with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s.
FURTHER OUT: At some point, this heat pattern is going to break. Right now, it looks like that might happen around Sept. 18. Don’t write it in stone, not just yet, but know that there’s a possibility that the end is in sight. (However, we’re probably not looking at cool weather or an early taste of fall just yet. We’ll simply see temperatures return to about average for this time of year. Overall, above-average temperatures will likely continue through the months of October, November, and perhaps December.)
RIVER CONDITIONS: Below-average streamflows continue, with the Big South Fork River near 60 cubic feet per second (cfs) and Clear Fork under 10 cfs as it nears record low flow for this time of year. Water clarity is excellent, and water temperatures are pushing into the upper 80s during the peak of afternoon heating — nice swimming conditions; not-so-nice paddling conditions. Only the flatwater sections of the waterways are suitable for paddling right now.
TROPICAL WATCH: No tropical storms are expected for the next seven days, at least, as a very quiet hurricane season continues in the Atlantic basin.
WINTER OUTLOOK: The El Nino pattern in the Pacific is rapidly becoming the strongest of our lifetimes. This is going to impact our weather this winter, though determining the exact outcomes is very much an inexact science — if for no reason other than outbreaks of cold weather depend heavily on smaller-scale atmospheric patterns that cannot be predicted months in advance. Generally speaking, though, strong El Ninos bring wetter than average and milder than average winter weather to our part of the country.
