TUESDAY WEATHER: 🌧️ Thunderstorms will be likely once again today. In fact, it looks like storm chances will be more robust all week than was perhaps initially thought, when it looked like the week would begin and end with likely thunderstorm chances and feature a break in between. In any event, there’s a 60% chance of thunderstorms today, primarily during the afternoon hours, and we’ll top out around 83 degrees, which could actually be our “coolest” day in a while. (Yesterday’s official high at the airport was 85 degrees.) As has been the case the past couple of days, today’s storm chances will be very much hit-or-miss. Not everyone will see rain.
THE REST OF THE WEEK: It currently looks like we’ll see about a 70% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow and a 40% chance Thursday. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s each day, dropping into the mid to upper 60s at night. Thunderstorms will be diurnally driven, meaning they’ll begin to dissipate as soon as the sun goes down.
THE WEEKEND: Thunderstorms will become likely again Friday, and remain likely Saturday and Sunday, as more organized shortwave energy swings through the region. Temperatures will be in the mid 80s on Friday, likely dropping back slightly to the low 80s Saturday and Sunday. It’s always impossible to say where the heaviest thunderstorms will set up during these summertime events, but the entire state has the potential to receive a couple of inches or more of rain between now and the end of the weekend.
FURTHER OUT: Next week looks warmer and drier than this week. Then we’ll see a pretty typical dog-days pattern for the second half of July, with near-normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall. That means it’ll be hot, but hopefully not too hot, and muggy, with near-daily chances of thunderstorms but hopefully no flooding rains or organized severe weather.
RIVER CONDITIONS: The Big South Fork River is flowing about 500 cubic feet per second (cfs). Clear Fork is flowing just above 200 cfs. Both are quite a bit above normal for this time of year. Water clarity is decent and improving. Water temperatures are in the mid 80s during the peak of afternoon heating.
