WEDNESDAY WEATHER: After some foggy conditions to start the day, heat and humidity begin to work their way back into our area. We’ll top out around 88 degrees today with mostly sunny skies. Tonight, we’ll drop into the upper 60s with a slight chance of showers late.
There’s a better chance of rain tomorrow morning. The first round of showers should be out of our area by early afternoon. However, there’s a chance for additional showers later in the day that will have to be watched.
THE WEEKEND: For Friday night football, there’s a 50% chance of thunderstorms. However, the activity will be very much hit-or-miss in nature, and will quickly diminish after sunset. Temperatures will top out in the mid 80s on Friday. The rest of the weekend will be dry, and we should get another break in the humidity, which will make Sunday much like yesterday — still very warm, but not as humid and miserable. Temperatures may not get out of the low 80s Sunday, and some outlying areas may see the upper 50s by Monday morning!
NEXT WEEK: A slight taste of fall should be in the air as we head out the door for work and school on Monday, but the heat and humidity will quickly rebuild again, with thunderstorm chances returning to the forecast by Tuesday. The general pattern is going to be a heat ridge over the Desert Southwest and cooler-than-average weather in New England. That’ll likely translate to near normal conditions here in between. The longer range forecast looks hotter than normal and potentially wetter than normal as we head into September. If you remember the very wet September we experienced in 2009, that was due to a developing strong El Nino pattern. The El Nino pattern we’re currently heading into will be even stronger. That’s not a guarantee that September 2009 will repeat itself, obviously, but there’s certainly a chance for above-average temperatures and above-average rainfall throughout the fall months.
RIVER CONDITIONS: Near-normal streamflows continue. The Big South Fork River is flowing just above 150 cubic feet per second (cfs), and Clear Fork is just under 50 cfs. Water clarity is excellent and water temperatures are topping out around 86 degrees during the peak of afternoon heating. Conditions are pretty good for heading to your favorite swimming hole after school or work to beat this summer heat.
TROPICAL WATCH: No tropical storms are expected for at least the next 7 days, as one of the quietest hurricane seasons of the modern era continues to unfold.
WINTER OUTLOOK: The upcoming winter will certainly be influenced by what is likely to be the strongest El Nino on record. Historical precedent indicates a wet winter for the Southeast, including Tennessee, due to a hyperactive southern branch of the jet stream. Historical precedent also indicates fewer intrusions of arctic air into the southern Appalachians, which can mean less snow than average in our area even if it doesn’t translate into a warmer-than-average winter. However, some of our region’s biggest snowstorms have occurred during strong El Ninos. The phenomenon lends itself to an increased risk for blockbuster winter storms if — and that’s a big word — the storm track and cold air intrusions line up correctly. Whether that happens depends on smaller scale atmospheric patterns that, unlike El Nino, cannot be accurately predicted very far in advance. If one were betting, the safest bet would be that this winter starts warm, with above-average temperatures persisting through December and perhaps into January.
