THURSDAY WEATHER: Rain works its way into the forecast today, and we’re pretty sure no one is going to complain about that! We desperately need any rain we can get. There’s a 30% chance of rain today with a high of 88°. Tonight, there’s a 40% chance of showers with a low of 67°. The cold front that will deliver the initial rain chances is expected to dissipate as it moves through the region. However, a shortwave piece of energy will trigger additional rain chances tomorrow and Saturday. Rain will be likely tomorrow and tomorrow night, and will remain likely on Saturday. Temperatures will be around 87° tomorrow and 85° Saturday. Mostly dry weather returns Sunday, with a 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms and a high of 87°.
We probably won’t see a lot of rain. The heaviest rain totals will be to our north, across the Ohio Valley. But hopefully we’ll see enough to settle the dust, and with a little luck we could see some meaningful rain. Rainfall totals will likely vary quite a bit from location to location, and will be difficult to forecast.
NEXT WEEK: We’ll see a return of summer-like ridging early next week, which will mean drier weather and temperatures near 90°. We’re still looking at the possibility of a pattern change around Sept. 18-20 that will deliver an end to these hot temperatures and bring us weather that’s more typical for this time of year.
RIVER CONDITIONS: Below-average streamflows continue, with the Big South Fork River flowing around 50 cubic feet per second (cfs) and Clear Fork at less than 10 cfs. Labor Day weekend is usually considered the end of swimming season, and it actually tends to end a little sooner than that on the river, but water temperatures continue to push into the mid 80s each afternoon this week, and will for at least the next week, unless we see meaningful rainfall in the headwater areas this weekend. Water clarity is currently excellent.
TROPICAL WATCH: No tropical storms are expected in the Atlantic for at least the next seven days. The GFS model is currently suggesting a Gulf storm that would bring heavy rains to much of the South. Nice to think about (the rain in our area, not the storm damage along the coast) but it’s not likely to happen.
WINTER OUTLOOK: One of the strongest El Niño patterns on record will influence our weather this winter, though the exact impacts aren’t likely to be determined very far in advance. As a general rule, strong El Niños bring above-average rainfall and milder-than-usual temperatures to much of the Southeast. The heaviest rains, relative to normal, tend to be closer to the coastal areas, but can extend as far inland as the northern Cumberland Plateau. The more active storm track can increase the chances of a major winter storm or two in our area, though that is highly dependent on the availability of cold air.
TODAY: The Methodist Church’s Gerry McDonald Mission House in Oneida will be open from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m. today. You’re eligible to receive food once per month. The Scott County Senior Citizens Center (Main Street, Oneida) will offer exercise from 10 a.m. to 11 a.m. The Scott Appalachian Industries Senior Center (Monticello Pike, Huntsville) will offer a ceramic shop trip at 10:30 a.m. The Scott County Board of Education will meet at the Central Office in Huntsville, beginning at 4:30 p.m. In sports, Scott and Oneida soccer will face off at Jane Terry Hoffman Field at 6:30 p.m. Oneida Middle School football will host Lake City at 7 p.m., and Scott Middle football will host Monterey at 7 p.m.
